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THE CRASH-OUT — 4 Comments

  1. From this side of the Irish Sea (you’re welcome!) it looks to me as though one of two things is going to happen.

    The non-problems surrounding where the border is (and what it is for) might be used as an excuse to postpone Brexit indefinitely. The politicians expected us to be good proles and vote the way they tried to coerce, so they’ll just tell us leaving is too difficult in such a short time-frame and they’re still working on it.

    Alternatively, the border issue will be magically resolved, and all the nonsense debates they’ve had recently will be used to rail-road the more stupid MPs into voting for the remaining parts of Mrs Mays dreadful “transition” agreement. It’s an odd sort of transition where to progress towards leaving the EU you have to tie yourself closer to it and be more subservient.

    So, rather then let us “crash out” of the EU (sick of that emotive bollox), they intend to destroy the whole process. The British Government might say they are taking us out of the EU, but they neither want to do so, or act like they are going to achieve it. All of the advertised problems are entirely solvable and primarily artificial constructs.

    There’s a whole well-funded industry around the “Remain” camp telling us repeatedly how terrible life is going to be after the EU. Apart from all the contradictions in their tales of gloom, nobody ever explains who is going to put all of these barriers in place. When you ask the people who actually know about the potential issues (like the people running the ports) they’ll tell you that everything is ready for a seamless transition. Don’t expect to hear that from the EU-supported BBC, though.

    • It is my firmly held opinion the the customs people either side of the North/South border could between them, come up with a workable solution for goods traveling across the border. Similarly the security people either side have no difficulties working together on matters of mutual interest. A hard border, or places on the roads where you must stop and be checked, is not necessary.
      Having said that, I suspect the line the EU Godfathers are taking is that the line between North and South Ireland is a land border between the EU and a non-member. That would be the letter-of-the-law view so an imaginary backstop in the Irish Sea solves the island of Ireland problem yet it creates another.
      My point though in all of this is that Ireland and the Irish are small potatoes, an interesting chess piece to use in deflecting attention away from the real checkmate.
      So there will be brinkmanship right to the final minutes before the EU either throws Paddy to the wolves or uses Paddy as an excuse to harm British interests. The UK for its part cannot afford to consider Paddy too much because they have bigger fish to fry. So the UK will do what it considers to be in its best interests and the EU will weigh up the good of 500m residents on the Continent versus 6m Paddies on a remote westerly island.
      It used to be called Realpolitic.

      • Of course another solution would be Irexit. At least, it would be a way to create a different set of identical problems! The EU see it as an EU/non EU border issue, but they are meant to have written into the constitution that they will deal “favourably” with non-EU neighbours. Surely that should include the UK from April? The percentage of cross-border trade in Ireland is sufficiently small to both the EU and UK that it would make no practical difference to UK tax-take if there was completely free trade, if only to pi$$ off the EU.

        You’re right, though. If is was left to the people on the front line to implement everything, an expedient and workable solution would quietly be found. To really nause things up, add politicians.

        • Get inside the EU head and imagine some expensive high-margin UK product which has huge tariffs slapped on it by the EU. So in non-member Liverpool, a truck is loaded with this expensive product/s, it drives north to Stranraer and ferry’s across to Larne. From there it is an easy drive down to Dublin Port via the ‘soft’ border, then hop on a ferry to Northern France where you would not be checked ’cause you came from another EU country. That is their letter-of-the-law scenario.
          IREXIT is not a runner right now though I would never say never. As to treating the UK favorably, that has been my argument all along. BREXIT is so bitter in EU minds it makes the UK re-joining if they so wished and almost impossibility.

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